Sky Italia set to pass Mediaset

ROME -- Rupert Murdoch's Sky Italia is expected to overtake Silvio Berlusconi's Mediaset as Italy's top commercial TV player in 2013, as the country's advertising market looks likely to suffer the long-term impact of Italy's current economic crisis, according to a report by ITMedia Consulting. After years of steady growth "for the first time, the television market as a whole in Italy is undergoing a recessive phase," said a summary of the study titled "The Television Market in Italy: 2011-2013 -- New challenges for the crisis years." It sees News Corp.'s Sky Italia paybox continuing to grow, confirming that pay TV is more recession-proof than advertising-based free TV in the Italian market. Earlier this month Sky Italia surpassed 5 million subs and predicted further profits. Mediaset's rival Mediaset Premium paybox, which claims nearly 4.5 million subs to the more low-end service operated with pay-as-you-go cards, has yet to break even. All told, according to ITMedia, at the end of 2011, the Italian TV market will be worth Euros 8.8 billion ($12.2 billion), slightly less than for 2010. With six-months to go before total switch-off from analog to digital terrestrial transmission, the country's three main broadcasters, Mediaset, Sky and pubcaster RAI, account for 95% of the Italian TV market. Going forward, Sky Italia and Mediaset will continue to contend the leadership position, with almost similar market shares and revenues of around Euros 3 billion ($4.1 billion). But Mediaset, given that generalist TV will remain its core-business, is expected to be affected by an advertising downturn, which will help Sky take the top position in 2013, the report predicted. Mediaset, which suffered a 2.1% drop in advertising for the first half of this year, will be announcing its third-quarter results on Nov. 8. Contact Nick Vivarelli at nvivarelli@gmail.com